Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market for lithium carbonate remains in a volatile and bearish pattern despite a short - term rebound due to news stimulation, with supply - demand fundamentals constraining upward movement [3]. - After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has sharply decreased, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil has improved. However, due to large geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to close long - call options on crude oil [5]. - For copper, the cease - fire agreement increases investors' risk appetite. Although the supply is expected to be tight, weak terminal consumption restricts the rise of spot premiums, and it can be traded within a range [11]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to increase, and with the decline of geopolitical risk, it is recommended to cautiously operate and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. - PP, plastic, and PVC are all expected to oscillate at low levels due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and the decline of geopolitical risk [14][16][17]. - The soybean crop in the US has good growth conditions, and the supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient. The market for soybean oil is expected to be strongly volatile, while the market for soybean meal will continue to oscillate [19][20]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are loose, with no expectation of a significant increase, and the night - session support needs to be monitored [22]. - The fundamentals of urea are loose, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to be oscillating and bearish, with the follow - up of agricultural demand and export news determining the rebound strength [23]. Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - The price rebounded about 3% intraday due to news, but the SMM average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous workday [3]. - In May 2025, the import volume decreased by 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year, and the import average price decreased by 1.7% month - on - month [3]. - With high domestic production enthusiasm, weak downstream demand, and continuous inventory accumulation, the market remains bearish [3]. Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased significantly after the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - Entering the seasonal travel peak, US crude oil inventories have continued to decline, and OPEC+ production increases are lower than expected, improving the supply - demand situation [5]. Copper - After the cease - fire, investors' risk appetite increases. The supply is expected to be tight, but the inventory situation varies globally [11]. - As of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.54% compared to the previous month. In June, the demand is weak due to the off - season [11]. - The price fluctuates within a small range, and range trading is recommended [11]. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 30.4%, and the 6 - month refinery production plan increased [12]. - The downstream construction rate of road asphalt decreased to 22.6%, and the national shipment volume increased by 5.99% [12]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has continued to decline, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12][13]. PP - The downstream construction rate decreased to 49.63%, and new production capacity was put into operation in June. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [14]. - With the decline of geopolitical risk and the slow recovery of downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The construction rate decreased to 81%, and the downstream construction rate decreased to 38.69%. After the holiday, the inventory was at a neutral level [15]. - Affected by tariffs and the decline of geopolitical risk, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [15][16]. PVC - The production rate decreased to 78.62%, and the downstream construction rate continued to decline slightly. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is still high [17]. - With the improvement of real estate data being limited, it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - The main 09 contract of soybean oil fell 2.21% today. The US soybean growing area will have suitable temperature and precipitation, which is negative for the market [18][19]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 950 million tons this month. The support from oil prices has weakened, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The main 09 contract of soybean meal fell 0.16% today. As of June 22, the US soybean growing conditions were good, and the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [20]. - With large production and limited downstream demand, it is expected to continue the oscillating market [20]. Coking Coal - After the cease - fire, the market for coking coal weakened. The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal remained unchanged [22]. - With an increase in domestic coal production and inventory, and weak demand for coke, the fundamentals are loose, and the night - session support needs attention [22]. Urea - The urea futures closed down today, with weak spot market transactions. The supply is expected to increase, and the international supply pressure has eased [23]. - The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The medium - to - long - term trend is oscillating and bearish [23].
冠通每日交易策略-20250624
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-06-24 11:19