以伊停火地缘溢价消散，能化盘面尘归尘土归土

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to the dissipation of geopolitical premiums in the energy and chemical sectors. The markets returned to the mid - term supply - demand logic, presenting opportunities for short positions. Whether to enter the market depends on individual risk tolerance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the cease - fire, geopolitical premiums were squeezed out, and the market returned to the mid - term oversupply supply - demand logic [5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillatory structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was a sharp decline and a short - term break in the trend today. - Strategy: There was an opportunity to enter short positions when the price broke through in the early morning with Iran's symbolic attack. The stop - loss was set at the 572 level [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The operating rate of styrene increased rapidly to 79%, with ample supply, weak downstream demand, and a possible shift to inventory accumulation. It was still easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [8]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: There were opportunities to enter short positions when the price broke through last night or when the cease - fire was announced this morning [8]. (3) Rubber - Logic: In May, the export volume of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply increase expectation was gradually realized. Tire operating rates declined, inventories were high, and downstream demand expectations remained pessimistic [11]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. There was an increase in trading volume and a decline today, returning to the downward structure. - Strategy: Hold short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 14000 [11]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamental situation was one of high supply, weak demand, and large inventory pressure. Raw material butadiene would still be under pressure, and demand was extremely weak. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in crude oil prices [15]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [15]. (5) PX - Logic: Supported by downstream demand, PX continued to reduce inventory, with a short - term strong fundamental situation. It was more affected by crude oil price fluctuations recently [19]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [19]. (6) PTA - Logic: Previously shut - down PTA units were gradually restarting, polyester demand was weak, and the fundamental situation had weakened. It was more easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations in the short term [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [20]. (7) PP - Logic: The operating rate of PP units increased, supply was under pressure, and terminal demand was weak. The supply expectations of raw materials methanol and propane were affected by the Israel - Iran conflict [22]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [22]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Iranian methanol units stopped operating, increasing supply - side disturbances. Attention was needed on whether this would have a significant impact on future imports [26]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [26]. (9) PVC - Logic: Maintenance volume gradually decreased, PVC supply increased, and terminal demand was insufficient. The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on PVC was relatively weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure may have ended. It broke through key support today, and the short - term trend may have reversed. - Strategy: Wait for a rebound and then enter short positions according to technical signals rather than directly entering the market [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply - side maintenance units would gradually resume operation, polyester operating rates declined, and the short - term fundamental situation weakened. It was easily affected by the geopolitical situation [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures on the daily and hourly levels respectively, with a break in the trend today. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [30]. (11) Plastic - Logic: There was pressure from large - scale unit production in the mid - term, with a large expected increase in supply. It was easily affected by large fluctuations in oil prices in the short term [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, the hourly - level upward structure was under test. There was a significant decline today, testing short - term support, but it had not broken through technically. - Strategy: Try short positions after the cease - fire was announced this morning [34].