Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma with a target price of HKD 84.60, up from a previous target of HKD 53.10 [2][30]. Core Insights - Lisaftoclax has demonstrated potential to overcome resistance to venetoclax in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), showcasing promising efficacy and safety data [7][23]. - The report highlights the significant clinical data presented at the ASCO 2025 meeting, marking the first international study demonstrating a novel Bcl-2 inhibitor overcoming venetoclax resistance [23][26]. - The company is actively progressing in global registration studies for high-risk MDS and first-line AML, enhancing the potential for out-licensing opportunities [26][30]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is HKD 25.19 billion (USD 3.21 billion) with a current share price of HKD 72.30 [2]. - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 570 million, RMB 2.99 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB -840 million, RMB 1.25 billion, and RMB 910 million [29][30]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [14]. Clinical Data Highlights - In a study of 28 relapsed/refractory AML patients with prior venetoclax resistance, the overall response rate (ORR) was 31.8%, with 22.8% achieving complete remission [4][17]. - For newly diagnosed AML patients, the ORR was 83.3%, with 33.3% achieving complete remission [18]. - In MDS/CMML patients, the ORR was 80% for treatment-naïve patients and 50% for relapsed/refractory patients, indicating strong efficacy [19][25]. Valuation - The report utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a revised target price of HKD 84.60 per share [30].
亚盛医药-B（06855）：lisaftoclax展示出克服维奈克拉耐药的潜力，多项研究亮相EHA年会