房地产基本面走弱，重新期待政策窗口

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [8] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a weakening of fundamentals, leading to renewed expectations for policy interventions. The new housing market has seen some success with the "good housing" policy since 2025, but the de-stocking of old inventory remains unsatisfactory. The second-hand housing market has seen a notable increase in transaction volume through price adjustments, yet housing prices have been on a continuous decline since Q4 of last year. As of May, the new residential prices in 70 cities have decreased by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year, indicating a comprehensive downturn in data and increasing the necessity for real estate stimulus policies. Historically, when the fundamentals weaken and stock prices approach new lows, it is considered an opportune time for investment, suggesting that the current policy negotiation window in the real estate sector has opened [2][3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of -1.4% against the CSI 300. The CSI 300 index closed at 3846.6 with a weekly decline of 0.5%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2110.8 with a weekly decline of 1.9% [4][11]. Policy Developments - Recent adjustments to housing provident fund policies are expected to optimize transactions and boost market confidence. Various cities have announced increases in loan limits and reductions in down payment ratios, which could potentially enhance the utilization of provident fund loans. However, the marginal effectiveness of these conventional measures may be limited, and if unexpected relaxations occur, it could significantly stabilize and rebound the real estate market [3][10]. Sales Performance - In the 25th week, new home sales in 44 major cities increased by 8.2% compared to the previous week, totaling 18,000 units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also rose by 1.8%, reaching 20,000 units. Inventory levels decreased by 0.2 million units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 22.0 months, which is an increase of 0.5 months compared to the previous week [6][13][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks based on the balance of policy negotiations and financial safety, including: - JinDi Group (600383, Accumulate) - Poly Developments (600048, Buy) - China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) - Beike-W (02423, Buy) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209, Buy) - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to New Town Holdings (601155, Not Rated), Binjiang Group (002244, Not Rated), and China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) [10][29].