2025年5月财政数据点评：财政收支“双承压”，“低价”预计仍是主因

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 96,623 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% (previous value: -0.4%) [2] - The national general public budget expenditure during the same period was CNY 112,953 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% (previous value: 4.6%) [2] - The revenue and expenditure are under "dual pressure," primarily due to "low prices," with PPI continuing to decline affecting VAT, corporate income tax, and tariff revenues [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic VAT, domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax growth rates were 2.4%, 1.6%, -2.5%, and 8.2%, respectively [3] - In May, VAT and personal income tax showed improvements, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1% and 12.3%, respectively, supported by high-tech manufacturing [4] - Corporate income tax growth was flat at 0.0%, down from 4.0% in the previous period, influenced by low PPI and tariff frictions [5] Expenditure Insights - The expenditure progress for January to May reached 38.5% of the annual budget, with social security, health, and transportation expenditures showing the fastest progress at 45.5%, 41.6%, and 39.1%, respectively [8] - General public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, while broad fiscal expenditure growth was 6.6%, indicating a positive trend supporting Q2 GDP [9] Government Fund Insights - From January to May 2025, government fund budget expenditure was CNY 32,125 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [10] - Land transfer income-related expenditure decreased by 9.3%, reflecting weakened investment enthusiasm from real estate companies [10] Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy has room for incremental space and tools to address potential external risks, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [10] - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately CNY 35,354 billion in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 84% [11]