银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that precious metals will continue to trade in a high - level range in the short term. Although the easing of geopolitical factors has put pressure on gold due to the clearing of risk premiums, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy. The risks caused by tariff shocks remain, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle, which provides strong support for precious metals [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: Due to the confirmed cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the risk premium in the market was cleared. London gold fell slightly to around $3327, and London silver fluctuated within a narrow range at around $36.14. Driven by external markets, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.263% at 771.86 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.09% at 8739 yuan/kilogram. Attention is drawn to Fed Chairman Powell's semi - annual monetary policy report testimony [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index continued to decline and was trading around 98.13 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield also declined and was trading around 4.33% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose and was trading around 7.1778 [6]. Important Information - Geopolitical conflicts: Iran launched a retaliatory missile strike on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. Iranian officials said they would continue to retaliate against US attacks and reiterated that if there were to be negotiations, the US must stop its attacks on Iran. Trump announced a full cease - fire between Israel and Iran [7]. - US macro data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (expected 51, previous value 52), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1 (expected 52.9, previous value 53.7) [7]. - Fed views: Fed official Bowman said that if inflation pressures are under control, she would support an early rate cut at the next meeting to bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market. Fed's Goolsbee emphasized the importance of paying attention to the moderate performance of economic data during the current transition period and that if the impact of trade policies fades, the Fed should continue to cut rates [7]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut has slightly increased to 20.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 16.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.1%. The market currently bets that the Fed will cut rates once in September and once in December this year [8][9]. Logical Analysis Geopolitically, the temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. In terms of the US macro - economy, although the PMI data showed resilience, Fed officials' hints of a possible rate cut in July caused the US dollar and Treasury yields to decline rapidly, which supported precious metals. Overall, despite the pressure on gold from the clearing of risk premiums due to geopolitical easing, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy, and the risks caused by tariff shocks and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support precious metals [10]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [13]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, domestic - foreign price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures open interest, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17].