银河期货尿素日报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market sentiment remains weak, with the decline in spot factory - gate prices in major regions widening and trading sluggish. It is expected that urea futures and spot prices will be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to domestic export dynamics [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, urea futures fluctuated widely, closing at 1698 (-16/-0.93%). In the spot market, the factory - gate prices continued to decline, with prices in different regions as follows: Henan 1710 - 1730 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1700 - 1780 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1620 - 1680 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1620 - 1690 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On June 24, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.86 tons, 0.12 tons less than the previous working day and 2.91 tons more than the same period last year. The current operating rate was 85.79%, 7.52% higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Market sentiment is still low, with increased price drops in major regions and weak trading. Shandong and Henan regions are expected to see continued price drops. The factory - gate prices in areas around the delivery zone are following the downward trend. Although some plants are under maintenance and daily production is below 200,000 tons, it is still at a record high for the same period. The end of the Middle - East conflict has stabilized international prices, and the large price difference between domestic and international markets has a certain positive impact on domestic sentiment. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizer plants in central and northern China is low, and overall demand is declining. Although the port inspection policy for exports has been relaxed, its impact on domestic spot is limited. With prices dropping to around 1700 yuan/ton, demand remains weak, and it is expected that urea futures and spot will be weak in the short - term [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Bearish - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell call options on rebounds [6]