银河期货煤炭日报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of late June, coal production in major producing areas has declined, but overall supply remains relatively abundant. Power plant inventory depletion is slow, and with the impact of imported coal, power plants only maintain essential purchases. Port inventory is continuously decreasing, and as the temperature rises nationwide, power plant daily consumption will continue to increase seasonally. The pit - mouth chemical coal demand is stable, and it is expected that coal prices will be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On June 24, port market quotes were firm, with 5500 - kcal coal quoted at 615 - 620 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal at 545 - 550 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal at 480 - 485 yuan/ton. Different regions had different price ranges for non - power enterprise coal [3]. Important News - As of the end of May, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. From January to May, the cumulative new grid - connected scale was nearly 200 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 57%. China's photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 1.08 billion kilowatts, accounting for 30% of the total installed power generation capacity and nearly half of the global photovoltaic installed capacity [4]. Logical Analysis - Supply: Pit - mouth prices have temporarily stopped falling. Some coal mines have stopped production, and the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia have declined. As of June 23, the operating rate in Ordos was 66%, and in Yulin was 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was around 3.7 million tons, but the overall domestic supply was still abundant [5]. - Import: The domestic and import markets showed different trends. The demand for inquiries improved, domestic coal prices were basically stable, while import traders continued to reduce prices for sales, and the actual transaction prices in the market declined [5]. - Demand: New energy had a significant impact, the load of thermal power plants was generally low, and coal inventories were at a high level. Some power plants expected a potential downward pressure on electricity prices in July. The cement operating rate at the non - power end was low, while the operating rates of coal - to - methanol and coal - to - urea were high, and the demand for chemical coal was fair [5]. - Inventory: Due to the shipping inversion, port inflows decreased. The daily average freight volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line dropped to 1 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Hohhot Railway Bureau dropped to around 30. Port outflows were low, and port inventories continued to decrease. As of June 24, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports dropped to around 26.4 million tons, a decrease of 5 million tons from the high level, but it was still high. The daily consumption of coastal power plants increased seasonally, but inventory depletion was slow, and the inventory of inland power plants remained high [5].