苹果产业风险管理日报-20250624

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has entered the fruit expansion period of apples. The trading points on the futures market are limited, and it is highly likely that the market will maintain a volatile pattern from June to August. Attention should be paid to the release of tri - party bagging data and the opening price of early - maturing apples. Currently, the opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is the same as last year, but the production of this variety is small [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of apples is 7300 - 7900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 9.1% over the past three years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Inventory Management: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples nationwide and low purchase prices, with a long spot position, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 7600 - 7650 [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about the decline of old - crop apple inventory and the reduction of new - crop apple production, leading to high purchase prices, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7350 - 7450 [3]. Core Contradictions - The market is in the apple fruit expansion period, with few trading points on the futures market. It is likely to be volatile from June to August. Focus on bagging data and early - maturing apple opening prices. The opening price of early - maturing Fuji apples is flat compared to last year, but production is low [4]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The inventory in apple - producing areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and faster inventory reduction than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures market [5]. - Unstable weather in apple - producing areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest producing area is poor, and there may be a significant reduction in production [5]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The overall reduction in production based on bagging conditions is less than expected, and the bagging situation is relatively normal [5]. - As the peak season of seasonal fruits arrives, the large supply of fruits such as watermelons, grapes, and lychees at low prices impacts the apple market. High - priced fruits have no market, indicating weak consumption [5]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On June 24, 2025, the closing prices and daily/weekly price changes of different apple futures contracts (AP01 - AP12, spreads like AP01 - 05, etc.) are provided, along with the prices and daily/weekly price changes of different spot apple varieties (e.g., Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commercial 70), as well as data on profit, theoretical delivery price, and basis [6]. Apple Inventory - As of June 20, 2025 (Steel Union data), the national cold - storage inventory was 116.49 (decrease of 10.97), and as of June 12, 2025 (Zhuochuang data), it was 126.69 (decrease of 9.81). The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc.) and the weekly changes in the number of trucks arriving at some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) are also provided [8].