铜杆企业、贸易商调研总结

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of copper ore is tight in 2025, with an expected increment of 20 - 30 tons. However, domestic smelters are still increasing production, and the supply will continue to rise in the second half of the year, but the increment will drop to over 200,000 tons. Overseas, there are both production cuts and new productions [2][6]. - The market generally agrees that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, with differences mainly in the decline range. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate between 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and there is strong support at 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term [2]. - If the 232 investigation result is implemented, the price spread will narrow, but there is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - In 2025, the copper price has been constantly disturbed by tariffs and the supply side. The supply of copper ore is tight, and scrap copper has become a key raw material supplement. Due to the impact of US tariff policies, consumption has been advanced, and the apparent consumption growth rate in the first half of the year has exceeded 10%. The COMEX market has attracted global electrolytic copper, causing non - US inventories to drop to an absolute low. The price spreads at home and abroad show a large Back structure, with high delivery risks [4]. 3.2 Research Results Analysis - Copper ore supply is tight, scrap copper supply is stable: The supply increment of copper ore in 2025 is about 20 - 30 tons, and smelters' spot orders are at a loss. Domestic smelters increase production, mainly supplemented by long - term supply from overseas mines and increased scrap copper procurement. Overseas, some smelters cut production, while others start new production. Although the supply of scrap copper in China is tight, there is no actual reduction globally, but rather a supply mismatch [6]. - LME inventory continues to decline, and the import ratio still has room to fall: After the 232 investigation was announced, the price spread between COMEX and LME widened, and global copper inventory began to transfer. As of June 20, LME inventory decreased from 266,000 tons at the end of February to 100,000 tons. Most of the Russian copper in LME inventory has flowed into China. Before the 232 result is implemented, non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively. There is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously if the 232 result is implemented [8]. - Consumption weakens in the second half of the year, copper price fluctuates weakly: The consumption of electrolytic copper grew rapidly in the first half of the year, especially in April. The market generally believes that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies for household appliances, the end of the "trade - in" program for cars, the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, and the pre - consumption. Most believe that copper consumption will weaken marginally but remain resilient, and the price may correct periodically [10]. 3.3 Research Details - Jiangsu copper rod enterprise: The company's production and sales are basically hedged, with low inventory. The consumption of copper rods was good in the first half of the year but weakened in May. The processing fee was under pressure, and orders were concentrated in leading enterprises. The stamp duty also affected the company's profitability [12]. - Jiangsu copper processing enterprise: The company's production was strong in the first half of the year, with high production rates in March and April. It entered the off - season in June. The company is pessimistic about the demand in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies and the long payment cycle of customers [13]. - Zhejiang trading company: The company's hedging ratio is flexible, and it mainly imports EQ copper. The domestic scrap copper supply is tight, and the company expects the price to correct to 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term. There is a high risk of a short squeeze in the overseas market [14]. - Shanghai trading company: The company's copper trade volume is large, and it mainly imports copper through long - term contracts. The supply of copper concentrate has little increment, but the production of refined copper in China continues to increase. The consumption shows strong reality and weak expectation. The company is bullish on the long - term copper price [14]. - Another Shanghai trading company: The company mainly imports copper from "Belt and Road" countries. The shortage of copper concentrate is due to low processing fees. The Russian copper in LME warehouses will be shipped to China in batches. The overall supply and demand of copper are in a tight balance [15]. - Yet another Shanghai trading company: The market contradictions mainly come from the conflicts between traders and smelters and between raw materials and elements. The 232 result will affect the price structure, and the company is relatively optimistic about the price [17].