聚酯产业链期货周报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and PF in the polyester industry chain are expected to be oscillating and strengthening this week. The specific trading strategies include going long on PX and short on PTA, going short on PTA and long on PF, and remaining on the sidelines for options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX: The futures price of PX oscillated and strengthened this week, with the floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX strengthening, and the profit of PX expanding. The operating rate of PX changed little. In early July, there are maintenance plans for William Chemical's 2 million tons/year and Tianjin Petrochemical's 390,000 tons. The maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical's 700,000 tons of PX was postponed to September. The operating rate of Asian PX has declined recently, and the circulating supply of PX is tight. The trading strategy is to be oscillating and strengthening unilaterally, go long on PX and short on PTA for arbitrage, and remain on the sidelines for options [7]. - PTA: This week, the supply of PTA decreased while the demand increased, the social inventory decreased, the basis and monthly spread strengthened, and the processing fee was compressed. The operating rate of PTA decreased, the operating rate of downstream polyester increased, the inventory of polyester factories decreased, and the profit of polyester continued to be compressed. The trading strategy is to be oscillating and strengthening unilaterally, go long on PX and short on PTA for arbitrage, and remain on the sidelines for options [7]. - MEG: This week, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread strengthened. The supply of ethylene glycol increased significantly, the operating rate of downstream polyester was boosted, and the operating rates of terminal looms, texturing, and dyeing continued to weaken. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in June and July is still tight, and the port inventory is low. The trading strategy is to be oscillating and strengthening unilaterally, remain on the sidelines for arbitrage, and remain on the sidelines for options [7]. - PF: This week, the supply of staple fiber increased while the demand decreased, the production and sales were stable, and the processing fee increased. Some large manufacturers had tight supplies, and the supply of staple fiber was tight, with the processing fee strengthening. In July, the mainstream large manufacturers of staple fiber still have production reduction plans, and the downstream operating rate is stable. The trading strategy is to be oscillating and strengthening unilaterally, go short on PTA and long on PF for arbitrage, and remain on the sidelines for options [7]. - Bottle chips: This week, the load of some bottle chip devices increased, the operating rate of bottle chips strengthened, there was no downstream bidding, the inventory of bottle chips increased, and the processing fee of bottle chips was compressed. Pay attention to the actual situation of device shutdowns. The trading strategy is to be oscillating and strengthening unilaterally, remain on the sidelines for arbitrage, and remain on the sidelines for options [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The operating rate of polyester increased week - on - week, the inventory of polyester factories decreased, and the profit of polyester continued to be compressed. The operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing, and dyeing showed a seasonal decline. The operating rate of filament factories increased, and the inventory accumulated. The operating rate of bottle chips increased, and the loss expanded. The supply of staple fiber increased while the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [11][21][23][28]. 3.2.2 PX - The floating price, basis, and monthly spread of PX strengthened. The gasoline inventory rebounded, and the cracking spread weakened. The supply increased significantly in June, the maintenance of PX increased in July, and the profit of PX was weak first and then strong. The operating rate of PX changed little this week, but it is expected to decline in July [30][33][37][45]. 3.2.3 PTA - The basis and monthly spread of PTA strengthened. The supply decreased while the demand increased, the social inventory decreased, and the processing fee was compressed. The internal - external price spread of PTA rebounded, and the export expectation decreased. From January to April, the cumulative export of PTA was 1.3364 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In May, the internal - external price spread of PTA narrowed, the export profit declined, and the export expectation of PTA decreased [46][48][50][52]. 3.2.4 Ethylene Glycol - The supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread strengthened. The port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased, the supply rebounded significantly, and the operating rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly recently. The supply - demand pattern in June continued to be in a tight balance [53][55]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - Price: The report shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and Brent crude oil, as well as the price trends of the PX industrial chain [65]. - Inter - variety spread and profit: It includes the spreads and profits between NAP Japan CFR - BLENT main contract settlement price, PX - BLENT, PX - NAP Asia, PX - MX (Korea), and PX theoretical profit [67][68]. - Disproportionation and oil - blending spread and profit: It involves the gasoline inventory, gasoline cracking spread, and crude oil inventory in the United States, as well as the spreads and profits of Asian toluene disproportionation - oil blending, toluene oil - blending spread, and disproportionation profit [78][80]. - Inter - regional spread and profit: It shows the spreads between toluene (US - Korea), xylene (US - Korea), and PX (US - Korea) [88][89][90][91]. - Supply and demand: It presents the operating rates of Chinese PX and Asian PX, as well as the relationship between PX - NAP Asia and the load of Chinese PTA [94]. 3.3.2 PTA - Profit: It includes the spot profits of PTA with crude oil and naphtha, as well as the theoretical profit of PTA - PX [102][103]. - Supply and demand: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester [105]. - Inventory: It presents the social inventory of PTA, the raw material inventory of polyester factories, the raw material inventory of PTA factories, and the PTA warehouse receipts [107]. 3.3.3 MEG - Price: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China, the coal price in Inner Mongolia, the ex - tank price of methanol in Jiangsu, and the price of Northeast Asian ethylene [109]. - Spread: It includes the internal - external spread of ethylene glycol, the spread between East China and South China of ethylene glycol, the EO - 1.4EG spread, the spreads between different regions of ethylene glycol (Northeast Asia - Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia - US, Northwest Europe - US Gulf), and the basis and monthly spread of MEG09 [110][111][115][117]. - Profit: It involves the oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and coal - based profit of ethylene glycol [122][124]. - Supply and demand: It presents the load index of ethylene glycol, the operating rate of MEG synthesis gas, the load of polyester, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol [127]. 3.3.4 Polyester - Profit: It includes the average profit of filaments, the profit of staple fibers, the weighted profit of polyester, the processing profit of bottle chips, and the profit of slices [129]. - Supply: It shows the load indexes of polyester, bottle chips, filaments, and staple fibers, as well as the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers [131][132]. - Demand: It presents the operating rates of pure polyester yarn, the inventory of pure polyester yarn products, the raw material inventory of yarn mills, the operating rate of yarn mills, the inventory of polyester - cotton yarn factories, the load of Chinese yarn, the load of Chinese grey cloth, the inventory of Chinese grey cloth, the trading volume of the Light Textile City, the inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio of US wholesalers, the export amounts of textiles, clothing, and textiles and clothing, and the year - on - year growth rates of social consumer retail sales and clothing and textile retail sales [135][136][138][139].