保险公司次级债梳理：关注部分保险次级债机会-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests actively paying attention to opportunities in some insurance subordinated debts [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Insurance subordinated debts have gone through three development stages, with perpetual bonds being the mainstream issuance type currently. In the context of the domestic "asset shortage," some insurance subordinated debts have relative coupon advantages, and certain ones have relatively high investment value, but issuers with non - redemption situations or those that have not disclosed financial information for a long time should be carefully selected [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Insurance Subordinated Debt Development History - Three - stage Development and Current Situation: Insurance subordinated debt development has three stages. From 2005 - 2014, only subordinated term debts were issued; from 2015 - 2023, capital supplementary bonds were the main type; since 2023, perpetual bonds have become the mainstream. As of June 6, 2025, 56 insurance companies have 100 outstanding subordinated debts with a balance of 495.41 billion yuan [2][10]. - Issuance Scale Fluctuations: From 2005 to the end of 2024, the issuance scale of insurance subordinated debts showed four upward and three downward trends. Factors such as economic slowdown, regulatory policies, and industry reforms influenced these fluctuations. Life insurance companies are the main issuers [15]. - Rating and Interest Rate Characteristics: High - rated bonds dominate. From 2016 - 2025/06/08, the issuance scale ranking of different - rated insurance subordinated debts is AAA>AA +>AAA +>AA>AA ->A +. The overall issuance interest rate has shown a downward trend, and different - rated issuers have significant differences in coupon rates [19]. - Enterprise Nature of Issuers: As of June 6, 2025, central - owned enterprises account for 53.5% of the outstanding scale of insurance subordinated debts, indicating good overall credit quality of issuers [26]. - Regulatory Policy Changes: Key regulatory policy nodes include the release of the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Subordinated Term Debts of Insurance Companies" in 2004, the "Measures for the Administration of Subordinated Term Debts of Insurance Companies" in 2011, the permission for insurance groups to issue subordinated debts in 2013, the start of capital supplementary bond issuance in 2015, and the permission for issuing perpetual bonds in 2022 [29]. - Solvency Policy Evolution: Solvency policies have gone through "Solvency Generation I," "Solvency Generation II Phase I," and "Solvency Generation II Phase II." "Solvency Generation I" focused on asset scale, while "Solvency Generation II" focused on risk control. The implementation of "Solvency Generation II Phase II" has put pressure on insurance companies' solvency [33]. - Differences between Capital Supplementary Bonds and Perpetual Bonds: Capital supplementary bonds have a definite maturity, can supplement supplementary tier - 1 capital, and are prioritized in repayment. Perpetual bonds have no fixed maturity, can supplement core tier - 2 capital, and have a stronger subordinated nature [36]. - Special Provisions and Risks: Some insurance subordinated debts contain special provisions such as call options and write - down clauses. There is a risk of non - redemption, and historical non - redemption cases are mainly due to solvency pressure or operating losses [39][43]. 3.2 Activity Level of Insurance Subordinated Debts - Outstanding Debt Situation: As of June 6, 2025, 56 insurance institutions have 100 outstanding subordinated debts, with a capital supplementary bond scale of 378.04 billion yuan and a perpetual bond scale of 117.37 billion yuan. The remaining maturities of capital supplementary bonds are mainly within 1 year and 4 - 5 years, while perpetual bonds are in the 3 - 4 years and 4 - 5 years ranges [48][49]. - Secondary Market Transactions: From December 6, 2024, to June 6, 2025, 89 insurance subordinated debts had secondary - market trading records. Life insurance companies had the highest trading volume and turnover, followed by property insurance companies. The average turnover rate of perpetual bonds was higher than that of capital supplementary bonds [50][52]. - Comparison with Other Subordinated Debts: The trading activity of insurance subordinated debts is between that of bank and securities firm subordinated debts. The trading volume is lower than that of bank perpetual bonds but higher than that of securities firm subordinated debts. The turnover rate is lower than that of commercial bank subordinated debts but higher than that of securities firm subordinated debts [3][56]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation of Insurance Subordinated Debts - Supply - side Situation: The solvency adequacy ratio of insurance companies has declined. From the end of 2020 to the end of the first quarter of 2025, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio dropped from 184.75% to 131.42%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio dropped from 186.37% to 149.72%. There is potential for an increase in bond issuance [60]. - Demand - side Situation: Insurance institutions hold each other's subordinated debts, while asset management products (public funds, securities firm asset management, and bank wealth management) hold a small proportion. As of Q1 25, these three types of products held a total market value of 20.816 billion yuan of insurance subordinated debts, accounting for 2.34% of the total market value [4][62]. - Public Fund Holdings: Public funds hold more capital supplementary bonds with implicit AA +/AA ratings issued by central - owned enterprises. They increased their holdings of AA +/AA - rated and central - owned enterprise - issued subordinated debts in Q1 25 compared to the end of 2024 [66][67].