日本消费行业5月跟踪报告：国内需求企稳，免税销售承压

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [4]. Core Insights - Domestic demand in Japan is stabilizing, while duty-free sales are under pressure due to a significant decline in tourist spending [2][12]. - The consumer confidence index in Japan rose from a two-year low of 31.2 in April to 32.8 in May, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment [6]. - The core CPI in Japan increased by 3.7% year-on-year in May, remaining above the central bank's target for the 38th consecutive month, driven primarily by high food and energy prices [8]. Summary by Sections Macro - The consumer confidence index increased to 32.8 in May from 31.2 in April, with specific indicators showing improvements in overall living standards and income growth expectations [6]. - The nominal wage in April grew by 2.3% year-on-year, but real wages fell by 1.8% due to high inflation, impacting purchasing power [6][8]. Industry - Retail sales growth in essential goods is primarily driven by price increases, with a notable decline in beverage and beer sales [12]. - Duty-free sales in department stores dropped by 40% in May, contributing to a fourth consecutive month of year-on-year sales decline [2][12]. - The restaurant sector showed strong growth, particularly in low-cost dining, while clothing retail experienced an increase in foot traffic [12]. Essential Consumption - Drugstore same-store sales showed positive growth, with PPIH and 7-Eleven reporting increases of 7.7% and 3.1% respectively [14]. - Beverage sales continued to decline, with Asahi and Kirin reporting year-on-year revenue drops of 6% and 9% respectively [18]. Discretionary Consumption - The restaurant sector saw significant growth, with companies like Food&Life and McDonald's reporting same-store sales increases of 18.9% and 14.7% respectively [25]. - Clothing retailers such as Uniqlo and Workman also reported strong same-store sales growth of 13.1% and 11.4% respectively [27]. Stock Market - In May, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index for textiles and apparel rose by 6.3%, while the retail and food and beverage sectors saw increases of 3.0% and 0.4% respectively [4][40].