开源证券晨会纪要-20250624

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that by September 2024, the economy may be at a dual inflection point, transitioning from active deleveraging to an L-shaped economic phase, similar to the 2016-2017 period [5][14] - It is anticipated that by the second half of 2025, social financing and economic stability will be maintained, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5%, which is better than the market's expectation of a significant decline [5][15] - Current asset prices reflect a consensus expectation that if the economy does not significantly decline in the second half of the year, market sentiment may shift towards a belief that the economy has bottomed out [5][15] Group 2: Industry Insights - The low-altitude economy is experiencing vertical implementation from macro (national industrial planning) to micro (infrastructure bidding and application scenario development), with recommended stocks including Wolong Electric Drive and Green Energy Huichong [6][19] - The H-acid industry is facing potential supply tightness due to the need for rectification at the leading producer, Inner Mongolia Yadong, which may impact its production capacity [7][24] - H-acid prices have increased by 16% from 36,000 CNY/ton to 41,700 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year, with active dye prices also rising by 15% [7][25] Group 3: Company Updates - Dingjie Smart, a leading provider of digital transformation and smart manufacturing solutions, is expected to benefit from downstream recovery and overseas opportunities, with projected net profits of 201 million, 240 million, and 289 million CNY for 2025-2027 [8][29] - The company hosted the 2025 Digital Future Summit, showcasing AI-driven innovations and solutions aimed at enhancing business productivity [8][30] - AI commercialization has shown initial success, with a 135.07% year-on-year growth in AI business revenue in Taiwan, indicating strong potential for future growth [8][32]