资产配置日报：关键的大涨-20250624

Market Overview - On June 24, the equity market experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the participation of stabilizing funds, with notable strength in the non-bank and technology sectors [2][3] - Major stock indices saw broad increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, the CSI 300 by 1.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.30% [2] - The bond market continued its upward trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 0.6 basis points and the 30-year bond by 1.35 basis points [2][4] Oil and Gold Market - Following the ceasefire announcement, market risk aversion decreased sharply, leading to significant declines in oil and gold prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures dropping by 8.95% and 7.62% respectively [3] - Gold prices also fell, retreating from a high of $3,367 per ounce to around $3,310 per ounce due to reduced geopolitical risks [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank's substantial net injection of liquidity helped stabilize the funding environment as the market entered a cross-quarter week [4] - The overnight funding rates showed a downward trend, with the R001 and DR001 rates remaining stable at 1.44% and 1.37% respectively [4] - The issuance of long-term government bonds saw a slight increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield rising to 1.85% [6] Equity Market Trends - The A-share market saw a volume increase, with the total trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan, up by 301.1 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - The surge was attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the influx of stabilizing funds, particularly in sectors that had previously underperformed [7] - The market's strong performance suggests a temporary alleviation of the "crisis" sentiment that had been building [7] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector saw a notable increase, with the SW Non-Bank Financial Index rising by 2.68%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The Hong Kong market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.06% and 2.14% respectively [10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain within a consolidation framework established since mid-May, with potential upward pressure from profit-taking sentiments [8] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 may also influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors related to defense and technology [10]