平安证券晨会纪要-20250625

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The report indicates that the economic resilience and low price levels in the first half of the year led to a scenario where interest rates initially rose and then fell, with the 10Y government bond rate fluctuating between 1.65% and 1.70% [8][9] - For the second half of the year, the GDP growth target of 5% is deemed achievable, with expectations of stable monetary policy and potential fiscal stimulus [9][10] - The report suggests a buying strategy during adjustments, with anticipated ranges for 10Y government bonds between 1.5%-1.8% and 30Y bonds between 1.7%-1.9% [10][11] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) in diabetes and weight loss, with sales of the drug Semaglutide projected to reach $29.3 billion in 2024, closely competing with another drug, K drug, at $29.5 billion [4][11] - The global market for GLP-1 RA is expected to reach $100 billion by 2030, driven by expanding indications and clinical data accumulation [4][11] - The report identifies potential growth areas in the GLP-1 RA market, including fat loss and muscle gain, oral formulations, and ultra-long-acting formulations, which are seen as key future opportunities [12][13]