研究所晨会观点精萃-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Equity Index: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Black Metals: Short - term low - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous Metals: Short - term oscillation with a strong bias, cautious long [2] - Energy and Chemicals: Short - term increased volatility, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious Metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views - Overseas, the weakening of the US dollar index and the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have led to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, the strong consumption growth in May and the easing of geopolitical tensions and dovish Fed statements have supported domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, Fed Chair Powell is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran has reduced global risk aversion, weakening the US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in May is stable, with strong consumption but slowdown in investment and industrial production, which helps boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Equity Index: Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continues to rise. With strong consumption, stable economic growth, and supportive factors, short - term cautious long. Focus on geopolitical risks, trade negotiations, and domestic policies [3]. - Precious Metals: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Powell's statement and the Fed's stance have affected the market. The deterioration of US consumer confidence and the easing of the Middle East conflict have put short - term pressure on precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - Steel: On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices have affected the market. Although demand is not significantly deteriorated and inventory is falling, supply is increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [6]. - Iron Ore: On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. With the recovery of pig iron production and steel mill replenishment, and the increase in supply and inventory, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline in the medium term [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Tuesday, prices were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay in the short term. The production in Yunnan may increase, and the overall alloy production has little change. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and may decline if oil prices fall [7][8]. - Soda Ash: On Tuesday, soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [8]. - Glass: On Tuesday, glass prices oscillated strongly. Supply is stable at a low level, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate industry, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: Fed officials' dovish statements have an impact. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME has affected imports. Wait for the right time to short. Pay attention to trade negotiations and tariff policies [10]. - Aluminum: The easing of the Middle East situation has led to a decline in aluminum prices. There is significant inventory accumulation, and demand may weaken in the future [11]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the off - season, demand is weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supports prices. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term with limited upside [11]. - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited by various factors [12]. - Lithium Carbonate: The weighted contract rebounded, but there are unverified market rumors. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [12]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are weak, and prices are affected by coal prices. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term short - allocation [13]. - Polysilicon: Supply is at a low level with limited further decline, and demand is weak. If the photovoltaic industry increases production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's stance on the cease - fire and oil exports has affected the market. The market will focus on potential supply surplus later this year, and oil prices will remain weakly oscillating [14]. - Asphalt: Oil price decline has led to a fall in asphalt prices. Although inventory is being depleted, the price increase is limited. It will follow the high - level fluctuation of crude oil in the short term [14][15]. - PX: Crude oil decline has led to a decline in PX prices, but the downward space may be limited. Demand is increasing, and the tight supply pattern will continue. It will follow the weak oscillation of crude oil [15]. - PTA: The basis remains stable, but the decline in crude oil may lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester inventory, there may be production cuts in the future [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of supply - side impacts will continue to suppress prices, with short - term increased volatility [15]. - Short - fiber: Crude oil price decline will lead to a decline in short - fiber prices. It will follow the polyester sector and oscillate strongly. Wait for the peak - season demand to deplete inventory [16]. - Methanol: The price has declined, but due to potential supply shortages and improved profits, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. - PP: The futures price has declined. With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to fall. Pay attention to the development of the conflict [17]. - LLDPE: The price has adjusted. With stable supply and demand and the decline in oil prices, the price is expected to continue to weaken with increased short - term volatility [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: CBOT soybeans declined, affected by soybean oil and crude oil. The weather in the US Midwest is favorable for crop growth [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The high - level operation of oil mills has made the supply - demand of soybean meal gradually loose. The market sentiment is weak, and the basis is expected to remain unchanged [18]. - Palm Oil: Not enough information provided in the given text. - Live Hogs: The expected high - point of pig prices from August to September may not be high, and there will be selling pressure on the LH09 contract [20].