Group 1: Macro Overview - The current overseas macro environment is significantly influenced by tariffs, but the evolution of tariffs is unpredictable. It is more important to analyze the internal economic dynamics and clarify what tariffs have changed and what they have not [3] - Different scenarios regarding tariff outcomes should be hypothesized to develop corresponding market strategies, emphasizing a proactive approach [3] Group 2: Blockchain and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their advantages in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments. The competition among different stablecoins is expected to be intense due to their non-homogeneous characteristics [4] - The tokenization of US stocks and the integration with AI agents are identified as key areas for application, which will have a significant impact on global financial liquidity [4][5] Group 3: South American White Shrimp Industry - China is the largest consumer and producer of South American white shrimp, with Ecuador being the primary import source. The global farming growth rate for this shrimp from 2018 to 2022 was 7.94%, with China's production reaching 2.2384 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.66% [6][7] - The per capita consumption of shrimp in China is expected to grow, with the market projected to reach 143.5 billion by 2028. In 2023, the per capita seafood consumption increased to 17.38 kg, with shrimp consumption around 3.18 million tons [6][7] - Ecuador's shrimp exports to China are significant, accounting for 42.88% of imports in 2023, with Ecuador alone contributing 75% of that [6][8] Group 4: Trends in Shrimp Farming - The shrimp price has shown significant cyclicality, with recent years experiencing downward pressure due to increased production and imports. The highest prices typically occur from January to April, while the lowest are from June to September [7] - The trend towards factory-based and intensive farming is evident, with advantages in yield, efficiency, and stability. Domestic breeding levels are improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025 [9] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH - IFBH, a rapidly growing beverage and food company based in Thailand, focuses on natural and healthy products, with coconut water accounting for 95.6% of its revenue in 2024, generating $151 million [11] - The company has maintained a leading market share in China's coconut water market for five consecutive years, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its nearest competitor [11] Group 6: Military and Machinery - Bai Ao Intelligent - Bai Ao Intelligent is positioned in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the production of pyrotechnics, which are critical for ammunition performance. The company is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in this sector due to rising demand [12][14] - The company has achieved a breakthrough in pyrotechnics, securing a significant order worth 819 million for pyrotechnic equipment in 2024, indicating strong growth potential in the military sector [14][15]
朝闻国盛:2025年中期海外宏观展望:待时而动