金信期货日刊-20250625

Report Title - The report title is "GOLDTRUST FUTURES Daily" [1][2] Report Date - The report date is June 25, 2025 [1] Core Views - For soybean oil futures, prices have continued to plummet recently. With sufficient soybean supply, increased oil production, reduced demand, and negative macro - factors, investors can take profit on long positions and seize short - selling opportunities at high levels. In the short - term, soybean oil may fluctuate or be strong, but it is in a mid - term seasonal production and inventory increase phase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and short with a light position [3][4][21] - For crude oil, after Iran and Israel announced a cease - fire, oil prices dropped significantly, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] - For A - shares, the three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] - For gold, although there is an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term trend is still upward, and investors can buy in batches at low levels [12][13] - For iron ore, supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again. There is a risk of over - valuation, and the market should be viewed with a focus on the important support below [15][16] - For glass, the supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19][20] Industry Analysis Soybean Oil - Supply: In June 2025, the estimated arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills is 162.5 ships, about 10.5625 million tons, and the arrival volume in July and August will also be high. Sufficient soybean supply has led to an increase in oil mill crushing volume and a significant increase in soybean oil output [4] - Demand: As the weather gets hotter, the consumption of edible oils enters the off - season, and market demand weakens seasonally. Substitute oils such as palm oil and rapeseed oil also compete for market share, further reducing soybean oil demand [4] - Macro - factors: Global economic growth uncertainty has pressured the commodity market. The extension of the US EPA's review of the renewable diesel quota policy and market rumors of lower - than - expected blending targets have led to the withdrawal of speculative funds, causing a sharp decline in CBOT soybean oil futures and negatively affecting the domestic market [4] Crude Oil - Event Impact: The cease - fire announcement between Iran and Israel has led to a significant drop in oil prices, but the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8] A - shares - Market Performance: The three major A - share indices rose sharply in the morning and closed with a mid -阳线, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high in the current rebound [9] Gold - Policy Impact: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year have caused an adjustment in the gold market, but the long - term trend is still upward [13] Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and ports are accumulating inventory again, increasing the risk of over - valuation [16] - Technical View: Attention should be paid to the important support below, and the market should be viewed with a volatile mindset [15] Glass - Supply and Demand: The supply side has not seen major losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, resulting in weak demand. It is necessary to wait for the effect of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [19][20] - Technical View: It rebounded slightly today and should be viewed with a volatile mindset [19]