天风证券晨会集萃-20250625

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on global asset pricing and market stability, indicating a historical reduction in volatility compared to past conflicts [4][18][21] - The construction industry is facing a downturn due to limited funding sources and policy constraints, with a projected slowdown in infrastructure investment growth for 2024, although a slight recovery is expected in 2025 [29][30] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is gaining momentum, with significant advancements in drug development and increasing market share in global drug sales [9][10] Group 1: Market Overview - The report notes a slight decline in A-share indices, with the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index dropping by 1.76% and 1.66% respectively, amid ongoing negotiations between China and the US [3][26] - The fixed income market is experiencing a loosening of liquidity, with the central bank's net withdrawal of funds amounting to 79.9 billion yuan, leading to a drop in the DR007 rate below 1.5% [3][26] - Commodity markets are showing mixed signals, with fluctuations in prices for various metals and agricultural products, while pork prices remain below warning levels [3][27] Group 2: Construction Industry Analysis - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in demand, with new construction starts, construction, and completion areas showing negative year-on-year growth due to reduced infrastructure investment [29][30] - The report suggests a three-dimensional strategy for investing in construction bonds, focusing on mother-son spreads, variety spreads, and guarantee arbitrage to optimize returns [32] - The construction industry has a significant amount of outstanding bonds, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market, indicating a generally high credit quality among issuers [31] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The report emphasizes the robust growth of China's innovative drug market, with key products like Keytruda and semaglutide leading global sales, reflecting a narrowing gap with international counterparts [9][10] - Chinese innovative drugs are increasingly capturing market share, with over 30% of global clinical trials and a significant presence in high-value licensing deals [9][10] - The report anticipates continued growth in the domestic market for innovative drugs, driven by supportive policies and improved product capabilities [9][10]