LPG：短期利空兑现，价格有所支撑

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term negative factors for LPG have been realized, and the price is supported [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Fundamental Data - Futures Prices and Changes: The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,257 with a daily decline of 5.65%, and the night - session closing price was 4,195 with a decline of 1.46%. The closing price of PG2509 yesterday was 4,176 with a daily decline of 5.78%, and the night - session closing price was 4,111 with a decline of 1.56% [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 176,304, an increase of 72,744 from the previous day, and the open interest was 81,468, an increase of 4,772. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 36,951, an increase of 9,149 from the previous day, and the open interest was 26,436, an increase of 615 [1]. - Price Spreads: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 543 yesterday, compared with 238 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 613 yesterday, compared with 288 the previous day [1]. - Industrial Chain Key Price Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 66.2%, up from 64.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.7%, up from 59.7% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 47.2%, down slightly from 47.5% last week [1]. Market Information - Saudi CP Expectations: On June 23, 2025, the July Saudi CP expectation for propane was 602 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 572 dollars/ton, also down 8 dollars/ton. The August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 588 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 558 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars/ton [8]. - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with different start and end times [7]. - Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., have device maintenance plans in different regions, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [9]. Trend Intensity The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6].