国泰君安期货所长早读-20250625
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-25 02:01
- Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Financial Support for Consumption: On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", setting up a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, and taking various measures to promote consumption [7][8] - Crude Oil: After a sharp decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. There may still be a chance for a rebound in the first half of the third quarter. Brent and WTI may break through $80/barrel, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. However, in the medium - to - long term, the downward pressure on oil prices is large [9][10] - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts are continuously being removed, and lithium prices have rebounded from a low level. Although the supply - demand pattern has not significantly improved, the outflow of warehouse receipts and high virtual - to - real ratios may lead to increased market volatility [11] - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. It is expected to be under pressure in the future [12][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have ceased, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively weak outlook [20][24] - Silver: It continues to rise, and the trend strength is - 1 [20][24] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory decline supports prices, and the trend strength is 0 [26][28] - Aluminum: It is operating weakly, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - Alumina: It is oscillating at the bottom, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - Aluminum Alloy: The off - season is deepening, and the trend strength is 0 [29][31] - Zinc: It is adjusting in a narrow range, and the trend strength is 0 [32] - Lead: It is expected to be strong in the medium term, and the trend strength is 1 [34][35] - Tin: There is a tight current situation but weak expectations, and the trend strength is 0 [37][40] - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel ore end is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weakly marginal, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0 [42][45] Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Warehouse receipts are accelerating their removal, and the virtual - to - real ratio of near - month contracts is high. The trend strength is 0 [46][49] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts are being removed again, and attention should be paid to the upward space. The trend strength is 0 [50][52] - Polysilicon: The idea is mainly to short on rallies. The trend strength is - 1 [50][52] - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating within a range. The trend strength is - 1 [53] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [55][57] - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [59][61] - Coke: After four rounds of price cuts, it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - Coking Coal: It is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [62][64] - Steam Coal: Demand is yet to be released, and it is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is operating weakly. For the 2510 contract, short positions can be appropriately reduced and profits taken. The trend strength is not mentioned [12][13]