五矿期货早报有色金属-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. The tight raw material market and low inventories may support price increases, but weak domestic consumption restricts the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate and rise. Pay attention to import losses for potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The aluminum price may rise due to low inventories and improved risk sentiment, but the upside is limited by price increases and the off - season effect. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - The lead market has a weak downstream consumption. With the increase in primary lead smelting profits and开工率, and the low profit of secondary lead, the lead price is expected to remain weak [5]. - The zinc market is in a process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots. Although there is a high expectation of zinc ingot production, factors such as smelter production conversion, transportation issues, and geopolitical events lead to large market fluctuations [7]. - The tin market has a short - term supply shortage, but the downstream is in a seasonal off - season and has limited acceptance of high prices. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [8]. - The nickel market has an oversupply situation, with weakening cost support. It may face a downward trend, and attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian nickel ore prices [10]. - The lithium carbonate price has a slight increase. With limited marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost, and market news disturbances, caution is advised in operation [12]. - The alumina market has an over - capacity situation. The price is expected to be anchored by cost and maintain a weak oscillation. It is recommended to short at high prices [14]. - The stainless steel market showed a trend of first decline and then rise. Afternoon trading was more active due to factors such as production cuts and futures rebounds [16]. 3. Summaries by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.31% to $9664/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78470 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 1200 to 94675 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 22000 tons [2]. - Market: Domestic spot import losses widened; the refined - scrap copper price difference slightly increased; the overall market sentiment was weak [2]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 0.93% to $2568/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20270 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16000 hands; futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 46000 tons; domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly [4]. - Market: The spot market atmosphere was average; overseas LME inventory decreased, and the basis narrowed [4]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.19% to 16958 yuan/ton; LME lead 3S rose $11.5 to $2009.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE lead futures inventory was 44200 tons; domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 49800 tons [5]. - Market: The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined; the primary lead smelting开工率 reached a high level, and the price was expected to be weak [5]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.61% to 21908 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3S rose $36.5 to $2685/ton [7]. - Inventory: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 7500 tons; domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 77800 tons [7]. - Market: Zinc ore imports were good in May, but zinc ingot imports were lower than expected; the market was affected by production conversion, transportation, and geopolitical events [7]. Tin - Price: On June 24, 2025, SHFE tin closed at 263800 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [8]. - Supply - demand: Supply is short - term tight due to slow复产 in Myanmar and transportation issues; demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices [8]. - Market: The price is expected to fluctuate between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton in the LME market [8]. Nickel - Price: Nickel ore prices may decline; nickel iron prices are under pressure; intermediate product and nickel sulfate prices are falling; refined nickel spot premiums are stable [10]. - Supply - demand: The refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and inventory may start to accumulate again [10]. - Market: The price may face a downward trend, and attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian nickel ore prices [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 0.17% to 59777 yuan; the LC2509 contract rose 2.67% to 60700 yuan [12]. - Market: With market news disturbances and limited marginal changes in supply, demand, and cost, caution is advised in operation [12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.07% to 2895 yuan/ton; domestic spot prices mostly declined; the import window was closed [14]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24 to 35100 tons [14]. - Market: The over - capacity situation remains, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12440 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; spot prices mostly declined [16]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 669 to 113234 tons; social inventory increased by 1.04% to 1157400 tons [16]. - Market: The price showed a trend of first decline and then rise, and afternoon trading was more active [16].