宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures market in the report shows that the short - term performance of soybean meal futures is stronger than that of oils and fats, and the short - term is in a volatile state. The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors such as international oil prices and inventory, showing a relatively weak trend in the short - term [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - Core Logic: As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the weather is favorable for crop growth, the decline in the US soybean oil futures price drags down the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean market follows the fluctuation rhythm of the US soybean futures price. With stable market funds, the short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than that of oils and fats and runs in a volatile manner [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - Core Logic: The oils and fats market as a whole follows the decline of international oil prices. After returning to the fundamentals, the inventory of the three major oils shows an obvious increasing trend, and the inventory pressure appears. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the price fluctuations of other oils and international palm oil futures, running weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Information - Time Cycle Definition: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For soybean meal 2509, soybean oil 2509, and palm 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are strong, while the intraday view is weakly volatile. Different varieties are affected by different factors such as import arrival rhythm, US biofuel policy, and biodiesel attributes [6].