生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250625

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the price of the 2509 contract of live hogs is in a relatively reasonable range and recommends temporary observation, with an overall view of price oscillation adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 24, the national average price of live hog slaughter was 14.46 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day; the price in Henan was 14.74 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07% [6]. - Among futures prices, the 07 contract rose 100 yuan to 13,550 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase; the 09 contract fell 40 yuan to 13,940 yuan/ton, a -0.29% decrease [6]. Fundamental Analysis - From the data of sows and piglets, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase monthly until December, but the increase is limited; the first half of the year is the off - season for consumption, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - The fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust. The bearish factors include slow weight - reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in the second and third quarters. The bullish factors are the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the price will oscillate and adjust. The core logic is that with the expected increase in slaughter volume by December, the price is difficult to rise significantly; the current "slaughter volume increase - weight decrease - price stability" relationship in the spot market and the stable rebound of the price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs support the price, making it difficult to fall significantly; considering the current bullish and bearish factors, the 2509 contract price is in a reasonable range, so it is recommended to observe [4].