稳定币将如何影响全球货币体系？

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Growth - The stablecoin market has expanded from $5 billion in 2020 to over $250 billion by mid-2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 100%[2] - By 2024, the trading volume of stablecoins is expected to approach $37 trillion, significantly surpassing Bitcoin's trading volume of $19 trillion[24] - Over 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of the market share[24] Group 2: Future Projections - Conservative estimates suggest that the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion in size within the next 10 years, implying a CAGR of over 30%[2] - The US Treasury Secretary has projected that by the end of 2029, the market value of stablecoins could reach between $3.5 trillion and $4 trillion, indicating a CAGR of over 80%[2] Group 3: Factors Driving Adoption - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has significantly contributed to the rapid growth of stablecoins, providing a stable medium for transactions in the crypto space[3] - Stablecoins offer high payment efficiency, especially in cross-border transactions, and can bypass traditional banking systems, making them attractive in regions with underdeveloped banking infrastructure[3] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - Recent legislative efforts in the US (GENIUS Act) and Hong Kong (Stablecoin Ordinance) aim to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance their development and safety[4] - The clarity in regulatory frameworks is anticipated to balance efficiency and security in the stablecoin market, addressing risks related to compliance and redemption[4] Group 5: Potential Risks - The issuance of stablecoins could lead to an expansion of overall liquidity if monetary authorities do not adjust their statistical measures and design appropriate countermeasures[5] - Risks include compliance issues in cross-border transactions and potential redemption risks, which could impact the stability of the financial system[4]