东吴证券晨会纪要-20250625

Macro Strategy - The current market is entering a risk-off phase, with a potential shift back to growth sectors as seen in early 2024 and late 2025 [1][9] - Initial performance is led by TMT sectors, followed by rotation to upstream resources and finance, with a short-term rebound in consumption and manufacturing [1][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, focusing on stable sectors such as banks, utilities, and leading home appliance companies [1][9] Fixed Income - The bond market is experiencing low volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing from 1.642% to 1.638% during the week [2][10] - Economic data, including retail sales and manufacturing indices, shows mixed results, impacting market expectations for monetary policy [2][10] - The issuance of government bonds and local special bonds has been robust, with significant amounts issued in recent months [2][10][11] Industry Analysis - The real estate sector has shown a decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% in new home transaction area [20] - The second-hand housing market has seen a slight increase in transactions, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [20] - Land transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 31.8% in building area sold [20] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. is projected to achieve net profits of 8.1 billion, 9.3 billion, and 11.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 63%, 15%, and 20% respectively [7] - The company is positioned in the solid-state battery materials sector, specifically lithium sulfide, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [7] - A target valuation of 35 times earnings is set for 2025, leading to a target market cap of 28.2 billion yuan and a target price of 67 yuan per share [7]