宝城期货资讯早班车-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with GDP maintaining stable growth and consumer market gradually recovering [1]. - The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and experts expect further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the second half of the year [2][17]. - The stock market rebounds strongly, and high - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [34][35]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, showing stability [1]. - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, with different trends [1]. - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other indicators showed certain changes in May 2025 [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan [2]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to further loosen, with possible interest rate cuts of up to 30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of up to 0.5 percentage points [2][17]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Most London base metals declined, and international precious metals futures generally fell [5]. - As of mid - June, the prices of aluminum ingots and electrolytic copper increased, while zinc ingot prices decreased [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - June, the prices of coking coal, coke, and rebar all declined [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - CNOOC signed an oil and gas exploration and production contract [7]. - International oil prices dropped significantly due to the easing of the Middle East situation [7][8]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - June, the prices of soybeans, cotton, and corn all increased [11]. - Brazil's soybean meal exports in June are expected to reach 1.92 million tons [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 24, the central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 209.2 billion yuan [14]. - On June 25, the central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan [14]. 3.3.2 Key News - Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, aiming to boost and expand consumption [15]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and experts expect China's economic growth to remain above 5% in the second half of the year [16]. - Credit bond ETFs' total scale exceeded 200 billion yuan, becoming a rapidly growing segment in the ETF market [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with yields on major interest - rate bonds rising slightly [23]. - Exchange - traded bonds showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate hit a high since November 2024 [28][29]. - The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies generally rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Some amortized bond funds switched their investment styles from "full - rate" to "full - credit" [30]. - It is recommended to increase the allocation of 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - coupon credit bonds [30]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3400 points [34]. - The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the southbound capital had net purchases [35]. - High - profile institutions maintain an overweight recommendation for A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [35].