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2025年中期海外宏观展望:待时而动
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-25 02:42

Group 1: Macro Overview - The current overseas macro environment is significantly influenced by tariffs, with an emphasis on analyzing economic internal dynamics rather than solely predicting tariff outcomes [3] - Different scenarios regarding tariff impacts should be developed to create corresponding market response strategies, encapsulated in the phrase "hiding tools and waiting for the right moment" [3] Group 2: Blockchain and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their advantages in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments, with a competitive landscape emerging due to the non-homogeneous characteristics of different stablecoins [4] - The tokenization of US stocks and the integration of AI agents with stablecoin accounts are identified as key areas for application, potentially leading to a siphoning effect on global financial liquidity [4][5] Group 3: South American White Shrimp Industry - China is the largest consumer and producer of South American white shrimp, with Ecuador being the primary import source; the global farming growth rate from 2018 to 2022 was 7.94% [6] - In 2023, China's production reached 2.2384 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, with per capita seafood consumption projected to rise, leading to a market potential of 143.5 billion by 2028 [6][7] - The price of South American white shrimp has shown significant cyclicality, with recent years experiencing price pressure due to increased production and imports [7][8] Group 4: Industry Trends in Shrimp Farming - The trend towards factory-based and intensive farming is noted, with advantages in yield, efficiency, and stability; regions like the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are emerging as intensive farming areas [9] - The domestic breeding level is improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025, supported by advancements in breeding technology [9] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH - IFBH, a rapidly growing beverage company based in Thailand, dominates the coconut water market in China, holding a 34% market share in 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [11] - The company's revenue from coconut water reached $151 million in 2024, accounting for 95.6% of its total revenue [11] Group 6: Military and Machinery - Bai Ao Intelligent - Bai Ao Intelligent is positioned as a key player in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the production of pyrotechnics, which are critical for ammunition performance [12][14] - The company has secured significant contracts, including an 819 million yuan order for pyrotechnic equipment, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [14][15]