苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in styrene remains unchanged, but recent futures prices are greatly affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is more prudent to enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Styrene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for styrene is 6800 - 7600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.8% [2] 3.2 Styrene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7400 - 7300 yuan/ton; sell 50% of call options (EB2508C7500) at 90 - 200 to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if styrene rises [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, to prevent cost increases, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2508) at 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton; sell 75% of put options (EB2508P7100) at 110 - 150 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if styrene falls [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern of styrene fundamentals remains, but the futures price is significantly affected by macro factors. It is advisable to wait and enter short positions after the macro situation stabilizes [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Geopolitical unrest causes oil price fluctuations; approaching the June paper - cargo delivery, the near - term basis of styrene is firm [4] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - As of June 23, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory was 17.1 tons, a 11.76% MoM increase; styrene port inventory was 8.5 tons, a 28.21% MoM increase. The port inventories of both pure benzene and styrene increased this week [4] - The previously shut - down pure benzene and styrene plants are gradually resuming production, and the peak maintenance period has passed. The maintenance plans of some pure benzene plants originally scheduled for early July have been postponed, leading to a continuous increase in near - term supply [4] - The US Department of Commerce announced on June 12 that a 50% import tariff on household appliances containing steel parts would be imposed from June 23, pressuring the terminal demand for styrene [4] 3.6 Styrene Basis and Industrial Chain Spreads - Data shows the basis differences between different regions and futures contracts of styrene and the spreads in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain on June 24 and June 23 [6] 3.7 Styrene Daily Report - Industrial Chain Prices - Presents the prices of various products in the styrene industrial chain on June 24, June 23, and June 17, including Brent crude oil, naphtha, pure benzene, styrene, and related downstream products, along with their daily changes [6][7]