国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - Macro and Industry News: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - Comprehensive News: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - News: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - News: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - Fundamental Data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - Macro and Industry News: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].