Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on June 25, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; crude oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, glass, and fuel oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly; lithium carbonate futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Index Futures: Expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 3880 and 3900 points and support levels at 3852 and 3830 points [2]. - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures: The T2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 109.12 and 109.18 yuan and support levels at 109.00 and 108.90 yuan [3]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures: The TL2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 121.1 and 121.3 yuan and support levels at 120.8 and 120.7 yuan [3]. - Gold Futures: The AU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with support levels at 764.3 and 758.8 yuan/gram and resistance levels at 772.5 and 775.0 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver Futures: The AG2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 8537 and 8496 yuan/kg and resistance levels at 8743 and 8785 yuan/kg [3]. - Copper Futures: The CU2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 78000 and 77600 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78500 and 78700 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Futures: The AL2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, with support levels at 20210 and 20170 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 20320 and 20430 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina Futures: The AO2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 2929 and 2955 yuan/ton and support levels at 2870 and 2844 yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: The LC2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 61900 and 63000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 60600 and 59500 yuan/ton [3]. - Rebar Futures: The RB2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2961 and 2949 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 2983 and 2991 yuan/ton [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil Futures: The HC2510 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 3078 and 3066 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3099 and 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - Iron Ore Futures: The I2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 695 and 689 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 705 and 710 yuan/ton [4]. - Coking Coal Futures: The JM2509 contract is likely to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25, with resistance levels at 792 and 807 yuan/ton and support levels at 772 and 760 yuan/ton [4]. - Glass Futures: The FG509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 998 and 987 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1021 and 1026 yuan/ton [4]. - Soda Ash Futures: The SA509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 1147 and 1135 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 1164 and 1180 yuan/ton [4]. - Crude Oil Futures: The SC2508 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel, with resistance levels at 519 and 525 yuan/barrel [5]. - Fuel Oil Futures: The FU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 2997 and 2978 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 3065 and 3080 yuan/ton [5]. - Natural Rubber Futures: The RU2509 contract is likely to fluctuate strongly on June 25, attacking resistance levels at 13790 and 13950 yuan/ton, with support levels at 13660 and 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - Pulp Futures: The SP2509 contract is likely to fluctuate weakly on June 25, testing support levels at 5072 and 4994 yuan/ton, with resistance levels at 5136 and 5150 yuan/ton [7]. Macro News and Trading Tips - A grand military parade will be held in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War [8]. - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [8]. - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum opened, and most economists at the forum's chief economist briefing noted the stable performance of the Chinese economy, with an expected growth rate of over 5% in the second half of the year [8]. - The central bank will conduct 300 billion yuan of MLF operations on June 25, with a net MLF injection of 118 billion yuan in June, and a total net injection of medium - term liquidity of 318 billion yuan after including the 200 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [9]. - Many experts expect the central bank to continue to cut interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a possible interest rate cut of up to 30 basis points and a reserve requirement cut of up to 0.5 percentage points [9]. - When receiving personal pensions, individuals need to pay 3% personal income tax on the amount received, regardless of whether it is principal or investment income [9]. - The second review draft of the revised Anti - Unfair Competition Law plans to regulate unfair competition behaviors such as infringement of data rights and malicious transactions [9]. - The EU restricts Chinese enterprises' participation in its medical device public procurement, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce strongly opposes it [10]. - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire [10]. - Global central banks are considering shifting funds from the US dollar to gold, the euro, and the RMB [10]. - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed is in a favorable position to wait patiently before adjusting its monetary policy stance, but he does not rule out an earlier interest rate cut [10]. - Fed's Kashkari said the Fed may cut interest rates even if inflation remains high if the labor market deteriorates significantly [11]. - The US banking industry is about to receive the most significant capital relaxation since 2008 [11]. - The US current account deficit in the first quarter soared to a record high of $450.2 billion, and the goods trade deficit reached a record high of $466 billion [12]. - The US consumer confidence index in June unexpectedly dropped to 93 [12]. Commodity Futures - related Information - Domestic commodity futures fell across the board in night trading, with energy products leading the decline. Crude oil fell 9.27%, fuel oil fell 6.05%, etc. [12]. - International oil prices dropped sharply on June 24, with US crude oil futures down 5.11% and Brent crude oil futures down 5.19% [12]. - International precious metal futures generally fell on June 24, with COMEX gold futures down 1.66% and COMEX silver futures down 0.88% [13]. - Most London base metals fell on June 24, with LME aluminum down 0.79% and LME tin down 0.71% [13]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on June 24, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar reached its highest level since November 2024 [13]. - The US dollar index fell on June 24, and non - US currencies generally rose [14]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Index Futures: On June 24, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures all showed upward trends, with increased trading volume in the A - share market. Many foreign asset management institutions are optimistic about the structural opportunities in the Chinese market [14][17]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On June 24, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures fell. The central bank conducted 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan [35]. - Gold Futures: On June 24, the main contract of gold futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [42]. - Silver Futures: On June 24, the main contract of silver futures showed a slight decline, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in June 2025 and may reach a new high [50]. - Copper Futures: On June 24, the new main contract of copper futures rose slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [55]. - Aluminum Futures: On June 24, the main contract of aluminum futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [59]. - Alumina Futures: On June 24, the main contract of alumina futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in a wide range in June 2025 [62]. - Lithium Carbonate Futures: On June 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose strongly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [66]. - Rebar Futures: On June 24, the main contract of rebar futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in June 2025 [66]. - Hot - rolled Coil Futures: On June 24, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [73]. - Iron Ore Futures: On June 24, the main contract of iron ore futures fell slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range in June 2025 [76]. - Coking Coal Futures: On June 24, the main contract of coking coal futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on June 25 [83]. - Glass Futures: On June 24, the main contract of glass futures rose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [85]. - Soda Ash Futures: On June 24, the main contract of soda ash futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [87]. - Crude Oil Futures: On June 24, the main contract of crude oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in a wide range in June 2025 [89]. - Fuel Oil Futures: On June 24, the main contract of fuel oil futures fell sharply, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [93]. - Natural Rubber Futures: On June 24, the main contract of natural rubber futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly on June 25 [93]. - Pulp Futures: On June 24, the main contract of pulp futures fell, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly on June 25 [97].
股指期货将偏强震荡，原油期货将震荡偏弱，白银、铜、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡，碳酸锂期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-25 03:28