长护险深度报告：长护险有望催生万亿级护理需求，重点关注护理服务及设备租赁行业

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to generate a trillion-level demand for nursing services, with a focus on the nursing service and equipment rental sectors [2] - By 2050, the number of disabled individuals in China is projected to reach 62 million, leading to a related nursing demand of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, necessitating the establishment of a national LTCI system [4][8] - The top-level policy design for LTCI is accelerating, with supporting policies being rapidly introduced, indicating that a national system is imminent [4][12] Summary by Sections Long-term Care Insurance Overview - Long-term care services are defined as providing personal care, health care, and social services to disabled individuals over an extended period, aiming to maintain and improve their physiological functions and daily living abilities [4][8] - The proportion of disabled individuals is closely related to the aging population, with projections indicating a significant increase in the disabled population and corresponding care expenditures by 2050 [4][8] Policy Development - Since 2021, annual government work reports have consistently mentioned the promotion of LTCI, with language evolving from "steady progress" to "accelerated establishment" [4][12] - A total of 12 detailed policies have been introduced since 2021, focusing on disability assessment, talent resources, service institutions, and information management, with a noticeable acceleration in policy issuance since 2024 [15] Current Operation of LTCI - As of 2023, the number of individuals covered by LTCI reached 183 million, with a fund income of 24.4 billion yuan and an expenditure of 11.9 billion yuan, indicating substantial room for growth compared to international standards [4][18] - The proportion of individuals receiving benefits from LTCI in China is significantly lower than in countries like Germany, highlighting a considerable potential for growth in coverage [4][18] International Comparison - The report compares the LTCI systems in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and France, noting that the U.S. nursing industry expenditure was approximately 386.5 billion USD in 2022, accounting for 8.7% of total healthcare costs [35][39] - Japan's nursing industry expenditure was about 11 trillion yen in 2021, representing 17.8% of total healthcare costs, with a notable growth rate in community and home care services [47][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the nursing service and equipment rental sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit significantly from the growth of LTCI [4][35]