宏源期货品种策略日报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical premium brought by the Iran-Israel conflict has been basically cleared, and the increase in ethylene glycol has also mostly landed. The market situation of ethylene glycol will gradually return to the industry logic based on fundamentals, but in the short - term, the price will still be mainly affected by macro - events and cost - end factors. After the overnight sharp decline in crude oil prices, ethylene glycol is expected to operate weakly [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Price Information - On June 24, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan was $586.25 per ton, down 8.65% from the previous value; the price of ethylene Northeast Asia remained unchanged at $851 per ton; the ex - factory price of cyclohexane in East China remained unchanged at 6000 yuan per ton; the spot price of methanol MA remained unchanged at 2740 yuan per ton; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 290 yuan per ton [1] - The closing price of DCE EG's main contract was 4332 yuan per ton, down 3.75%; the settlement price was 4375 yuan per ton, down 2.86%; the closing price of the near - month contract was 4288 yuan per ton, up 0.78%; the settlement price of the near - month contract was 4288 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The market price of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China remained unchanged at 4410 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG's domestic market was 4410 yuan per ton, down 3.61% [1] - The near - far month price difference was 87 yuan per ton, a decrease of 162 yuan compared with the previous value; the basis was 78 yuan per ton, an increase of 4 yuan. The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 55.77%, down 2.56%; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 58.18%, down 4.34%; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol remained unchanged at 52.28% [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 90.01%, down 0.09%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 67.64% [1] - The post - tax gross profit of MTO MEG was 2056.13 yuan per ton, an increase of 21.95 yuan; the post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method device was 676.55 yuan per ton, a decrease of 150.44 yuan [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 9200 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY remained unchanged at 7500 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6880 yuan per ton, down 1.02%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6060 yuan per ton, down 3.19% [1] Equipment Information - An 800,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol (MEG) device in Zhejiang is expected to start maintenance on June 24 for 4 days [2] Market Situation - On June 24, the price of ethylene glycol dropped significantly, with the price falling to around 4400 yuan per ton. The trading of ethylene glycol cargo was relatively light, and polyester factories participated in the hanging orders at a relatively low level. The prices of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and chips fluctuated, and the sales were relatively light. The geopolitical premium caused by the Iran - Israel conflict has been basically cleared, and ethylene glycol's increase has also mostly landed [2]