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煤焦:盘面震荡运行,关注煤矿复产
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-06-25 04:05

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the near term, coal mine production cuts and reduced imports have alleviated the pressure of oversupply to some extent, slowing down the inventory accumulation rate of upstream coal mines. In the short term, coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Situation - Geopolitical conflicts showed signs of easing yesterday, causing energy-related commodity prices to fall and driving down the futures prices of coking coal and coke. On the spot market, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been gradually implemented, with no further price cut dynamics [3] - Recently, due to safety concerns, some coal mines in Changzhi received notices to suspend production for self - inspection. The suspension period is about 3 days. Coal mines in Qinyuan have received the notice, involving a verified production capacity of 22.3 million tons. According to the latest research, it affects the daily raw coal output by 82,200 tons, mainly affecting lean coal and lean coking coal. In the short term, supply is tightened, but the long - term impact is limited [3] Data Analysis - Last week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.99 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 7.01 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.7 million tons. The inventory level is still at an absolute high [3] - Downstream steel mills' operations are relatively stable, with hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons [3] - In May, China imported 738,690 tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.68%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 4.37139 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 380,560 tons, a decline of 8.01%. The decrease in imports was mainly due to the decline in Mongolian coal imports. In the first five months, China imported 2.00486 million tons of Mongolian coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 400,250 tons, a decline of 16.6%. In addition, due to high tariffs, US coal imports were zero in May [3] Later Focus - Pay attention to changes in the blast furnace operations of steel mills and the customs clearance situation of imported coal [4]