航运衍生品数据日报-20250625

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Index: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - Forward Contracts: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - Monthly Spread: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - Spot Market: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - Futures Market: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]