聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to remain in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, new device production capacity will increase significantly from June to August, and the device maintenance season is coming to an end, leading to a supply rebound. On the demand side, it is still in the off - season of production and sales, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited demand growth [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polypropylene Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.77% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.0% [1]. 3.2 Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7100 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs; sell PP2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [1]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [1]. 3.3 Market News Impact - Trump's statement about a cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to an opening limit - down in oil prices and a general decline in chemical products [2]. 3.4 Supply - Side Factors - New devices from Rulong 2 - line and Zhenhai Phase II were put into production during the Dragon Boat Festival and last weekend. Multiple devices will be put into operation from June to August, increasing PP production capacity significantly. In July, PP device maintenance is expected to decrease, and devices will gradually resume operation [4]. 3.5 Demand - Side Factors - It is currently the off - season for downstream sales, and with poor overall profits this year, domestic demand has been weak recently [4]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Data - Futures Prices and Spreads: Compared with June 24th and June 18th, on June 25th, the daily change of most futures prices was 0, while the weekly change showed a downward trend. For example, the PP01 contract decreased by 126 yuan/ton week - on - week, the PP05 contract decreased by 142 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the PP09 contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton week - on - week [5][7]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Spot prices in different regions also showed a downward trend. For example, the price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared with June 18th [7]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: Brent crude oil prices decreased by 8.97 dollars/barrel week - on - week, and the profits of different production methods of PP also changed. For example, the oil - to - PP profit increased by 279.7261 yuan/ton week - on - week [7].