聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's statement on the cease - fire between Israel and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices at the opening, causing a general decline in chemical products. PE supply is contracting due to the conflict - related shutdown of Iranian polyolefin plants and domestic PE device maintenance, while demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Overall, the current supply - demand pressure of PE is not significant, and attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7000 - 7400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.74%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 40.1% [2]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management - For high - inventory situations worried about price drops, shorting L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 7300 - 7400 range can prevent inventory depreciation. Selling L2509C7300 call options at a 50% ratio in the 70 - 120 range can collect premiums and lock in selling prices [2]. - For low - inventory situations, buying L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7100 - 7200 range can prevent price increases in procurement. Selling L2509P7100 put options at a 75% ratio in the 50 - 100 range can collect premiums and lock in buying prices [2]. Core Contradictions - Supply contraction: The Israel - Iran conflict led to plant shutdowns in Iran, and domestic PE devices are in maintenance, with full - density device conversion reducing the supply of standard products. Demand is mainly for刚需 restocking in the off - season. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and full - density device conversion [3]. Bullish Factors - PE devices are in seasonal maintenance until July. The high HDPE - LLDPE price difference leads to full - density device conversion, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the supply pressure. The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The off - season and low - profit environment reduce domestic demand [5]. Market Data - Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis, L01, L05, and L09 contracts all showed certain changes compared to previous days and weeks. Month - to - month spreads (L1 - 5, L5 - 9, L9 - 1) and the L - P spread also had significant changes [6][8]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China changed, and regional spreads (East - North, East - South) also showed fluctuations [8]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as between LDPE and LLDPE films, changed [8]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil prices, US ethane prices, coal prices, and methanol prices all changed, affecting the processing profits of different PE production methods [8].