原油日报：地缘溢价挤出，油价继续回落-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a wait-and-see approach in the short term due to large price fluctuations caused by black swan events and a short position allocation in the medium term [3] Core View - Although oil prices have dropped significantly in the past two days, they are still higher than before the Middle - East conflict. There is still room for adjustment to return to pre - event levels. Trump's call to lower oil prices will limit the upside of the oil market, especially in geopolitical events involving the US [2] Summary by Related Catalog Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.14 to $64.37 per barrel, a decline of 6.04%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell $4.34 to $67.14 per barrel, a decline of 6.07%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 9.27% at 502 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump announced that Israel and Iran reached a full cease - fire agreement through mediation by Qatar and the US. However, both sides claimed the other violated the agreement after it came into effect. Trump hopes to ease the tension and said that violations of the cease - fire agreement will not face consequences [1] - European Central Bank Vice - President Luis de Guindos said that the recent commodity price fluctuations caused by the conflict between Israel and Iran will not change the inflation outlook in the eurozone [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed is in a good position to wait patiently. The tone of his speech is slightly more hawkish than in February and last week [1] - US API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20 were - 427700 barrels (expected - 18300 barrels, previous - 1013300 barrels), etc. [1]