中辉有色观点-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have a strong and volatile trend. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged due to factors like the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary double easing, despite short - term price drops caused by geopolitical and interest - rate factors [1][3]. - Silver will experience range - bound oscillations. It lacks new driving forces, and the focus is on the support at 8550 [1][4]. - Copper is in a high - level volatile state. In the short term, there is a stalemate between bulls and bears, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, there is confidence in a bullish trend [1][7]. - Zinc rebounds but is under pressure. It is advisable to short after a full rebound as the supply is expected to increase while demand is weak in the long run [1][10]. - Lead shows a rebound trend in the short term due to factors such as enterprise maintenance and raw material cost support [1]. - Tin rebounds but is under pressure because of slow mine复产, low smelter operations, and a consumption off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure. With high imports of bauxite and the approach of the off - season, its price rebound is restricted [1][12]. - Nickel is in a weak state. Due to factors like cost reduction and high inventory, its price is under pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon rebounds but is under pressure. Although there is short - term strength, the fundamental oversupply situation remains [1]. - Lithium carbonate rebounds but is under pressure. The market is driven by rumors, but the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Conditions: Gold prices dropped due to Powell's refusal to cut interest rates and Trump's efforts to ease the Middle East situation. Silver prices were significantly affected by gold [2][3]. - Basic Logic: Powell reaffirmed not being in a hurry to cut interest rates; tariff negotiations were not going well; the market expected the Middle East situation to be controllable. In the long term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary double easing remains unchanged [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, pay attention to the support around 760 and consider long - term investment. For silver, focus on the support at 8550 and expect range - bound oscillations [4]. Copper - Market Conditions: Shanghai copper showed high - level overnight oscillations [6]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and inventory concerns have led to a stalemate between bulls and bears. Although it is the consumption off - season, green copper demand has offset the lack of traditional demand [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, try long positions on dips. In the long term, there is confidence in a bullish trend. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77800, 78800], and London copper focuses on [9600, 9750] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Conditions: Zinc prices were under pressure at the upper integer level and showed narrow - range oscillations [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Although inventories are decreasing against the season, downstream demand is weak [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a full rebound and then short. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22200], and London zinc focuses on [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Conditions: Aluminum prices were under pressure and declined, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - Industrial Logic: In the electrolytic aluminum industry, the off - season is deepening, and inventories are accumulating. For alumina, imports of bauxite are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short at high prices for Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20600]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - Market Conditions: Nickel prices were weak, and stainless steel prices stabilized at a low level [13]. - Industrial Logic: The cost support for nickel is weakening, and domestic inventories are high. The stainless steel industry is facing over - supply pressure due to the off - season and high inventories [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, focusing on downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [116000 - 120000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The main contract LC2509 rebounded with significant position - reduction in the afternoon [15]. - Industrial Logic: Market rumors led to short - covering. However, the supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the off - season [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short at high prices in the range [59800 - 61600] [16].