光大期货金融期货日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market rose rapidly yesterday, with the Wind All A index up 1.56% and a trading volume of 1.45 trillion yuan. The conflict between Iran and Israel has limited direct impact on the A-share market. Given the current credit contraction and insufficient demand, the index is unlikely to break through the central level and rise significantly. However, with the improvement in corporate earnings in H1 2025 compared to 2024 and the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not experience a sharp decline in the short term. It is expected that the index will mainly fluctuate in the future [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, the 10-year main contract down 0.11%, the 5-year main contract down 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%. The central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2092 billion yuan. The bond market lacks the momentum to strengthen significantly and is likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: The A-share market showed a significant upward trend, with multiple sectors rising. The conflict between Iran and Israel had limited direct impact on the A-share market. The domestic economy faces challenges such as credit contraction and insufficient demand, but corporate earnings have improved, leading to an expected volatile trend for the index [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank's open market operations led to a slight tightening of the capital market. Given the economic resilience and the approaching half-year end, the bond market is likely to remain range-bound [1][2]. Price Changes in Futures Contracts - Stock Index Futures: On June 24, 2025, IH rose 1.10%, IF rose 1.45%, IC rose 1.79%, and IM rose 2.46% compared to the previous day [3]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 1.20%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.62%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.92% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.03%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.12%, and TL fell 0.30% [3]. Market News - An event to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War will be held on September 3, including a military parade, and President Xi Jinping will deliver an important speech [4]. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, providing a visual reference for the performance of stock index futures [6][7][9]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, helping to analyze the treasury bond futures market [13][15][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report shows the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, and other currency pairs, as well as the trends of forward exchange rates, offering insights into the foreign exchange market [20][21][22].