燃料油日报：地缘溢价大幅回落，关注终端需求变化-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical premium has significantly declined, and the crude oil and fuel oil markets may re - enter the fundamental - driven stage if there are no new variables. The energy sector has fallen sharply due to the easing of the Middle East situation [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has support despite weak spot demand, as power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to increase in summer, and China's import and refinery demand may rise [1]. - The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and downstream demand is good, but there is a lack of continuous upward momentum as domestic refinery production is expected to recover [2]. - The strategy for both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is to be oscillating and slightly bullish, with attention on the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Price Movements: The night - session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 6.05% at 3,012 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.5% at 3,691 yuan/ton [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the crude oil premium caused by the geopolitical conflict has rapidly declined, and the energy sector has fallen significantly [1]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The monthly spread structure has weakened, indicating sufficient spot supply. However, with the approaching summer, power - generation demand in the Middle East and Egypt is increasing. Egypt may import more LNG and high - sulfur fuel oil, and Saudi Arabia's imports are rising. In June, China's high - sulfur fuel oil arrivals may increase, and the consumption tax deduction ratio may be adjusted, which could boost refinery demand [1]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Short - term supply pressure is limited, with low domestic production in May. Singapore's May bunker sales increased significantly, supporting the market. But domestic refinery production is expected to recover after the maintenance season, and the market lacks continuous upward drivers [2]. Strategy - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Oscillating and slightly bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iran - Israel conflict situation [3]. - Cross - Variety: No strategy provided [3]. - Cross - Period: No strategy provided [3]. - Spot - Futures: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3].