马士基7月第二周报价下调，关注其他船司跟随情况-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the first half of July were revised, and the August contract is in a game to determine the specific time when the freight rates will peak. However, there is a possibility that the freight rates peaked in the first half of July. Considering Maersk's rate cut in the second week of July, there is an expectation that the prices in the first half of July have already peaked. Due to the unclear peak - time of Shanghai - Europe route freight rates, it is necessary to pay attention to Maersk's actual quotation in the first week of the second half of July [5][6]. - The supply and demand of the US route both increased, with supply recovering rapidly. The freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West of the US have fallen from their highs. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. It is expected that the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small [2][3]. - The 6 - month contract is approaching delivery. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 94,675 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 101,361 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1306.60, 1151.00, 1888.10, 1772.00, 1304.60, and 1457.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On June 16, the SCFIS was 1697.63 points; on June 23, it was 1937.14 points; on June 30, the corresponding spot price was between 2900 - 3000 US dollars, equivalent to 2030 - 2100 points of SCFIS. The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points [4]. - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different shipping companies have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the first week of July decreased from 3400 US dollars/FEU to 3160 US dollars/FEU, and then dropped to 2900 US dollars/FEU in the second week. PA Alliance's average price is around 3300 US dollars/FEU, and OA Alliance's average price is around 3600 US dollars/FEU [1][6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port in July was 279,500 TEU, and in August it was 271,300 TEU. There were a total of 8 blank sailings in July, including 5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the PA Alliance [3]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been basically eliminated. Although the Strait of Hormuz is a key node for global oil trade, the direct impact on the global container shipping market is relatively small because the Middle East is not the core hub of global container trade [3]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The supply and demand of the US route both increased. Due to the expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs in April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the transpacific east - bound route faster than during the pandemic. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the demand for the Sino - US route has increased rapidly, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2].