鲍威尔重申不急于降息，关注以伊停火实施进展

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Domestic economic data in May was mixed, with investment and exports under pressure while consumption showed resilience. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The US economy is in good condition but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts within the Fed. The Israel - Iran conflict has an uncertain future, which may impact global asset prices. Different commodities have different outlooks based on factors such as tariffs and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic Economy: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. There are expectations of further fiscal measures. The US - China economic and trade consultation made new progress, and there is flexibility in the US tariff schedule [1] - US Economy: The Fed maintained interest rates. Powell said the US economy is in good condition, but there are differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials. US retail sales in May declined, while the June Markit manufacturing and services PMIs showed expansion [2] - Israel - Iran Conflict: The conflict has lasted for 12 days. Although a cease - fire was announced, there are still disputes and the future is uncertain. Historically, such conflicts can impact global asset prices, including oil, stocks, and precious metals [3] - Commodities: For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from US stock adjustments. Agricultural products may see price increases due to tariffs. Energy prices are sensitive to Middle - East geopolitical events, with short - term fluctuations and a medium - term supply - side view of relative abundance. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [4] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification. Gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - Do List - China's central bank will conduct a 3000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on June 25. Six departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, including a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [7]