化工日报：宏观氛围影响，原料波动加大-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of natural rubber is weak, and it is expected that the rubber price will run weakly at a low level. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it generally fluctuates with the price of upstream raw materials. It is recommended to participate with caution [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 13,665 yuan/ton, a change of -285 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,790 yuan/ton, a change of -220 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,650 yuan/ton, a change of -300 yuan/ton; the Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,600 yuan/ton, a change of -220 yuan/ton; the Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,680 US dollars/ton, a change of -20 US dollars/ton; the Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,620 US dollars/ton, a change of -20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,350 yuan/ton, a change of -250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Tire enterprises: In the second half of the month, the overall shipment of semi - steel tire enterprises did not improve, with great pressure on domestic market purchases and support from the export market. Many enterprises continued to control production. The performance of all - steel tire enterprises was relatively stable, and some factories planned to withdraw previous promotion policies next month [2] - Production data: In May 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.993 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. From January to May, the output was 4.88962 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The output of synthetic rubber in May was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative output was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2] - Passenger car market: In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail sales reached 8.811 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] - Truck and bus tire exports: In May, the export volume was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85%. The average export price in May was 2,095.8 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.56% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 24, 2025, the RU basis was -15 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 65 yuan/ton (-65), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was -6,579 yuan/ton (+341.72), the NR basis was 248.00 yuan/ton (+67.00); whole latex was 13,650 yuan/ton (-300), mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton (-220), 3L spot was 14,550 yuan/ton (-150) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 65.75 baht/kg (-3.00), Thai latex was 57.75 baht/kg (+0.00), Thai cup lump was 47.15 baht/kg (-0.35), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 10.60 baht/kg (+0.35) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+2.69%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+1.56%) [4] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,286,145 tons (+7,842.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 617,288 tons (+10,313), the RU futures inventory was 192,840 tons (-230), and the NR futures inventory was 32,256 tons (-2,620) [4] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On June 24, 2025, the BR basis was 70 yuan/ton (+45), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (+0), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (+0), the quotation of Zhejiang Transfar BR9000 was 11,350 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,300 yuan/ton (-250), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was -978 yuan/ton (-217) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+1.30%) [5] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,820 tons (+610), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,950 tons (-700) [5] Strategy - For natural rubber (RU and NR), pay attention to rainfall in major production areas. With the reduction of rain, raw material supply may increase, leading to a decline in raw material prices. The overall supply and demand is weak, and the rubber price is expected to run weakly at a low level [5] - For butadiene rubber (BR), the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It generally fluctuates with the price of upstream raw materials and is mainly affected by geopolitics recently. It is recommended to participate with caution [5]