油脂日报：原油价格下跌，油脂整体承压-20250625

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats oscillated and declined yesterday. Geopolitical factors caused a significant drop in crude oil prices, and the improved weather in US production areas put downward pressure on the overall oils and fats market [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures Prices: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan or 2.28% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 176.00 yuan or 2.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,572.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 149.00 yuan or 1.53% [1] - Spot Prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or 1.62%, with a spot basis of P09 + 154.00, an increase of 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.45%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 210.00, an increase of 56.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.52%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 178.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] - Market News: US President Trump called on Israel to stop bombing Iran, stating that it "seriously violated" the fragile cease - fire agreement between the two countries announced a few hours ago. China's central bank and five other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which mentioned implementing monetary policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. In the short term, the domestic soybean crushing volume remains at a peak level, with soybean oil production exceeding downstream提货量, and inventory continuing to rise. As of the end of the 25th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 986,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons or 3.06% compared to the previous week. Among them, the coastal inventory was 892,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 2.59% compared to the previous week [2] - Import Prices: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 613 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) was 603 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (July shipment) was 1,118 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,116 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of imported rapeseed oil from Canada (July shipment) was 1,050 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (July shipment) was 461 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (July shipment) was 456 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) was 462 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (July shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (July shipment) was 199 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, unchanged [2] Strategy - The recommended strategy is neutral [4]