FICC日报：国内政策提振，指数反弹-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight overseas market risk appetite recovered due to the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks, leading to a rise in US stocks. In China, the National Day parade news and post - market financial consumption - promotion measures helped boost the index. The sustainability of the rebound depends on whether the trading volume of the two markets can continue to expand [1][2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic Policy: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing 19 key measures in six aspects to enhance consumption potential [1]. - Overseas Situation: Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible early interest rate cut [1][2]. - Spot Market: A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.15% to 3420.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. Most sectors' indices rose, and the trading volume of the two markets increased to 1.4 trillion yuan. US stocks also rose, with the Nasdaq rising 1.43% to 19912.53 points [2]. - Futures Market: The basis of stock index futures slightly recovered but remained at a low level. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both increased [2]. Strategy - The market's upward trend is affected by overseas risk - appetite recovery and domestic policy catalysis. The sustainability of the rebound requires the continuous expansion of trading volume [3]. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends [6][9][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and other major indices all rose on June 24, 2025, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 2.3% [12]. - Market Volume and Balance: Include charts of the trading volume of the two markets and the margin trading balance [11][12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - Open Interest and Volume: The open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased [16]. - Basis: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes in different contracts and different delivery months, with some narrowing and some expanding [27]. - Inter - delivery Spread: The inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures also showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [33][35].