新能源及有色金属日报：持货商继续低价清库，铜价仍维持震荡-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. Scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to tighten due to the reverse invoicing policy, but the demand outlook is not optimistic. With a supply - demand imbalance and changeable macro - factors, the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract at 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 24, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,470 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, the procurement and sales sentiment improved. Due to inventory clearance by holders at low prices, the premium continued to decline, and some low - price goods were sold at a discount. The expected premium may continue to fall today [2]. Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump made statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and the US - Iran situation. China conducted 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on June 25 [3]. - Mine End: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon [4]. - Smelting and Import: Ningbo Jin Tian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the DRC this year, with expected increased imports in the second half. China's May scrap copper imports decreased, and Thailand became the largest supplier [5]. - Consumption: Jiangxi Tongying New Materials plans to invest 20 million yuan in a 10,000 - ton copper deep - processing project [6]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,325 tons to 94,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,103 tons to 22,425 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton for the Cu2507 contract [8]. - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton