山东主力下游采购价连续下调，烧碱低位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]