新能源及有色金属日报：传统消费旺季临近，铅价或震荡走强-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] Core Viewpoint - As the traditional consumption peak season for lead batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the probability of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low, and there may be a possibility of a short squeeze. It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.26/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 24, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,925 yuan/ton, closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 34,403 lots, an increase of 8,197 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 19,560 lots, a decrease of 8,713 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,005 yuan/ton and a low of 16,870 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.89% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In the Henan region, smelters offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price for ex-factory sales, and traders offered discounts of 200 - 130 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2507/2508 contracts for ex-factory sales. In the Hunan region, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, but the trading volume was weak. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui regions offered premiums of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Individual traders in Guangdong and Tianjin regions had firm quotes and were waiting and seeing. The lead futures price rose slightly during the day, and downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement. The overall market trading volume was light [2] Inventory - On June 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of June 24, the LME lead inventory was 277,375 tons, a decrease of 3,650 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying hedges on dips, with an operating range of 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton for the Pb2508 contract [3]